Libya and The Oil Price Crisis
CRISIS Libya continues. Upon the mandate of the United Nations (UN) to protect civilians, allied forces consisting of French, Italian, Spanish, English, United States, and Norway to attack Libya.
The attack is widely condemned because of civilian casualties has exacerbated the perception or psychology of the market against the risk of oil supply shortage. This is pushing oil prices back up. Brent oil price rises of around USD113 per barrel on Saturday (03/19/2011) to around USD117 per barrel on Monday (3/21/2011). Establishment of world oil prices are very sensitive to geopolitical factors in the form of crisis or political turmoil that hit the state security and the region including Libya oil Tak producer. Judging from the content of the natural wealth of oil and gas, Libya is a country that is relatively very rich.
Naturally, if the various parties began to suspect there is some hidden agenda of the coalition attack tersebut.Selain to protect civilians from massacre of followers of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, it is not impossible also tucked a view to one day be able to 'control' the Libyan oil and gas. 'Control' here does not necessarily mean 'master and Libyan oil and gas memiliki'cadangan directly, but could be in the form of encouraging the formation of government in Libya that can' follow 'the interests of these countries. In terms of energy security, countries such as Italy, Spain, and France are countries with oil and gas reserves in the bowels of the earth is very minimal.
They certainly need such a long-term assurance that the Libyan oil would not be 'diverted' to other countries, for example to China or India are also very thirsty on long-term supply security. Currently China and India have entered into Libya through their state-owned oil and gas. Because spikes are very large energy requirements, particularly China, there was intense competition in the 'grab' the world's energy sources, especially this migas.Saat has penetrated China's state-owned oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities in some 70 countries around the world, including Libya. According to BP Statistics 2010, Libya has proven reserves of natural resources (proven reserves) the crude oil is relatively very large.
Libyan oil reserves of about 44 billion barrels with production around 1.7 million barrels per day. Reserves to production ratio (R / P ratio) to about 71. This means that if if Libya did not find new reserves, new Libyan oil reserves run out about 71 years! With the price of USD100 per barrel oil, the value of property / assets of USD4.400 billion Libyan oil. While the wealth of Libya's gas reserves of 54 trillion cubic feet (tcf), with a value of about $ 500 miliar.Dengan so, the value of the wealth / asset Libyan oil and gas reserves to approximately USD4.900 billion.
This is certainly an extraordinary number of other countries that can make the bait look Libyan oil and gas. Compare with Indonesia, which only has proven reserves of about 4 billion barrels of oil, the R / P Ratio 12 years, with the value of reserves / oil assets of about USD400 billion. 113 tcf of gas reserves worth USD1.000 miliar.Total asset value / Indonesian oil and gas reserves to approximately USD1.400 billion. Although smaller than the value of Libyan oil and gas assets, the value of Indonesian oil and gas assets will be able to give optimum benefit to the people if the management and ownership status (ownership) are legally clear so they can dimonetasi. Should, problem management and ownership status of assets / reserves of proven oil and gas should be clarified in the Act (the Act) Oil and Gas that is currently being revised in the House of Representatives.
The problem is, with the increasing need for energy, especially oil, can not be avoided that the future trend of oil prices will continue to rise. Oil and Gas is an energy source that can not be renewed and very strategic. With Libya's current crisis, there are about 1.2 million barrels per day of oil production lost from the Libyan market. If the Libyan crisis continues, the world oil market is permanently threatened shortage of supply. Although Saudi Arabia has agreed to replace the shortage of supplies from Libya, the market is difficult to fully convinced that prices are still perched above USD100 per barrel. Whereas before the crisis, in November 2010 the price of oil is still about $ 80 per barrel.
Especially if the current crisis hit Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria and then spread to the Arab Saudi.Tentu world oil prices will further rise and could lead to crises of oil / energy crisis that is very powerful since Saudi Arabia is the country's largest oil exporter in the world. With the political turmoil that occurred in the Area of North Africa and the Middle East today, the risk of high oil prices will continue to haunt the world economy, including Indonesia. Because oil production is very low, only about 900,000 barrels per day, whereas in 1999 was about 1.5 million barrels per day, while demands for fuel oil (BBM) in the country continue to rise, no doubt that rising world oil prices turned out to give negative impact on the state budget and on the national economy.
Because oil production is very low, every time there is an increase in world oil prices will impact the addition of the budget deficit. With government policies that tend to do the 'omission' or 'do nothing' this time, where the government has said it will not raise fuel prices fuel while planning restrictions are also allowed to float, the prospects for oil and gas industry and national economy forward increasingly overwhelmed by the uncertainty (uncertainty) . Yet the problems faced are very clear.
Low oil production problems are due to mismanagement. This is rectified by immediately replacing oil and gas law because this law has caused the position of oil and gas investment in Indonesia was one of the worst in the world (Global Petroleum Survey 2010, the Fraser Institute of Canada). In the short term, production Cepu have a chance to be raised significantly. It takes coordination and hard work of the relevant parties. While the issue of fuel management and pricing should not be solved by herding people to move away from oil (premium) to oil (pertamax) as the discourse so far, but by diversifying into non-oil such as the gas (CNG) to accelerate infrastructure development.
If it is urgent, the standard solution is to raise fuel prices in a reasonable amount of such increase of 1,000 per liter, accompanied by a promise to the people that fund the subsidy savings would be used to build transportation infrastructure. (Okezone)
The attack is widely condemned because of civilian casualties has exacerbated the perception or psychology of the market against the risk of oil supply shortage. This is pushing oil prices back up. Brent oil price rises of around USD113 per barrel on Saturday (03/19/2011) to around USD117 per barrel on Monday (3/21/2011). Establishment of world oil prices are very sensitive to geopolitical factors in the form of crisis or political turmoil that hit the state security and the region including Libya oil Tak producer. Judging from the content of the natural wealth of oil and gas, Libya is a country that is relatively very rich.
Naturally, if the various parties began to suspect there is some hidden agenda of the coalition attack tersebut.Selain to protect civilians from massacre of followers of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, it is not impossible also tucked a view to one day be able to 'control' the Libyan oil and gas. 'Control' here does not necessarily mean 'master and Libyan oil and gas memiliki'cadangan directly, but could be in the form of encouraging the formation of government in Libya that can' follow 'the interests of these countries. In terms of energy security, countries such as Italy, Spain, and France are countries with oil and gas reserves in the bowels of the earth is very minimal.
They certainly need such a long-term assurance that the Libyan oil would not be 'diverted' to other countries, for example to China or India are also very thirsty on long-term supply security. Currently China and India have entered into Libya through their state-owned oil and gas. Because spikes are very large energy requirements, particularly China, there was intense competition in the 'grab' the world's energy sources, especially this migas.Saat has penetrated China's state-owned oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities in some 70 countries around the world, including Libya. According to BP Statistics 2010, Libya has proven reserves of natural resources (proven reserves) the crude oil is relatively very large.
Libyan oil reserves of about 44 billion barrels with production around 1.7 million barrels per day. Reserves to production ratio (R / P ratio) to about 71. This means that if if Libya did not find new reserves, new Libyan oil reserves run out about 71 years! With the price of USD100 per barrel oil, the value of property / assets of USD4.400 billion Libyan oil. While the wealth of Libya's gas reserves of 54 trillion cubic feet (tcf), with a value of about $ 500 miliar.Dengan so, the value of the wealth / asset Libyan oil and gas reserves to approximately USD4.900 billion.
This is certainly an extraordinary number of other countries that can make the bait look Libyan oil and gas. Compare with Indonesia, which only has proven reserves of about 4 billion barrels of oil, the R / P Ratio 12 years, with the value of reserves / oil assets of about USD400 billion. 113 tcf of gas reserves worth USD1.000 miliar.Total asset value / Indonesian oil and gas reserves to approximately USD1.400 billion. Although smaller than the value of Libyan oil and gas assets, the value of Indonesian oil and gas assets will be able to give optimum benefit to the people if the management and ownership status (ownership) are legally clear so they can dimonetasi. Should, problem management and ownership status of assets / reserves of proven oil and gas should be clarified in the Act (the Act) Oil and Gas that is currently being revised in the House of Representatives.
The problem is, with the increasing need for energy, especially oil, can not be avoided that the future trend of oil prices will continue to rise. Oil and Gas is an energy source that can not be renewed and very strategic. With Libya's current crisis, there are about 1.2 million barrels per day of oil production lost from the Libyan market. If the Libyan crisis continues, the world oil market is permanently threatened shortage of supply. Although Saudi Arabia has agreed to replace the shortage of supplies from Libya, the market is difficult to fully convinced that prices are still perched above USD100 per barrel. Whereas before the crisis, in November 2010 the price of oil is still about $ 80 per barrel.
Especially if the current crisis hit Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria and then spread to the Arab Saudi.Tentu world oil prices will further rise and could lead to crises of oil / energy crisis that is very powerful since Saudi Arabia is the country's largest oil exporter in the world. With the political turmoil that occurred in the Area of North Africa and the Middle East today, the risk of high oil prices will continue to haunt the world economy, including Indonesia. Because oil production is very low, only about 900,000 barrels per day, whereas in 1999 was about 1.5 million barrels per day, while demands for fuel oil (BBM) in the country continue to rise, no doubt that rising world oil prices turned out to give negative impact on the state budget and on the national economy.
Because oil production is very low, every time there is an increase in world oil prices will impact the addition of the budget deficit. With government policies that tend to do the 'omission' or 'do nothing' this time, where the government has said it will not raise fuel prices fuel while planning restrictions are also allowed to float, the prospects for oil and gas industry and national economy forward increasingly overwhelmed by the uncertainty (uncertainty) . Yet the problems faced are very clear.
Low oil production problems are due to mismanagement. This is rectified by immediately replacing oil and gas law because this law has caused the position of oil and gas investment in Indonesia was one of the worst in the world (Global Petroleum Survey 2010, the Fraser Institute of Canada). In the short term, production Cepu have a chance to be raised significantly. It takes coordination and hard work of the relevant parties. While the issue of fuel management and pricing should not be solved by herding people to move away from oil (premium) to oil (pertamax) as the discourse so far, but by diversifying into non-oil such as the gas (CNG) to accelerate infrastructure development.
If it is urgent, the standard solution is to raise fuel prices in a reasonable amount of such increase of 1,000 per liter, accompanied by a promise to the people that fund the subsidy savings would be used to build transportation infrastructure. (Okezone)
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